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Aarhus vs Odense Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

Aarhus

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Odense

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.2%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-111.1%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.0%3-15.8%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 57.1% 1.75 -9.0%

Draw 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Away win 23.8% 25.0% 4.00 -2.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 54.3% 61.7% 1.62 -12.0%

Home O1.5 48.8% 59.9% 1.67 -18.5%

Away O1.5 27.3% 33.3% 3.00 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.3%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aarhus1.8

Odense1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AARHUS · PPG 1.75

ODENSE · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aarhus (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -9.0%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

Odense (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarhus face Odense in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarhus a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Odense 24%, so Aarhus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Aarhus and 1.0 for Odense (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarhus are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.87 for Odense. This match finished 2-2.

Aarhus vs Odense Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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