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Sonderjyske vs FC Nordsjaelland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:00

Sonderjyske

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Nordsjaelland

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.0%0-26.8%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.3%1-112.5%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.8%2-17.8%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.4%3-13.3%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 26.3% 3.80 +30.3%

Draw 26.4% 25.6% 3.90 +1.8%

Away win 39.3% 57.1% 1.75 -31.2%

Over 2.5 50.2% 69.4% 1.44 -27.7%

Over 3.5 28.4% 47.6% 2.10 -24.2%

BTTS 53.0% 69.4% 1.44 -23.7%

Home O1.5 35.6% 40.0% 2.50 -11.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 65.4% 1.53 -37.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.0%

A 39% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 0–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sonderjyske1.2

FC Nordsjaelland1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SONDERJYSKE · PPG 1.30

FC NORDSJAELLAND · PPG 1.28

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sonderjyske (H) 34.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +30.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.8%

FC Nordsjaelland (A) 39.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -31.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sonderjyske face FC Nordsjaelland in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sonderjyske a 34% chance, the draw 26% and FC Nordsjaelland 39%, so FC Nordsjaelland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sonderjyske and 1.3 for FC Nordsjaelland (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sonderjyske are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.28 for FC Nordsjaelland. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Sonderjyske vs FC Nordsjaelland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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