Today / Tunisia - Ligue 1 / CA Bizertin vs Olympique Béja

CA Bizertin vs Olympique Béja Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:30

CA Bizertin

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Olympique Béja

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home 60% chance

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-19.1%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.2%1-111.5%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-17.3%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.1%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 63.7% 1.57 -21.3%

Draw 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

Away win 20.6% 15.4% 6.50 +20.3%

Over 2.5 34.6% 38.2% 2.62 -9.3%

Over 3.5 18.2% 19.6% 5.10 -4.3%

BTTS 42.4% 41.7% 2.40 +1.8%

Home O1.5 38.4% 49.0% 2.04 -21.7%

Away O1.5 14.2% 13.7% 7.30 +2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.4%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.2%

#2 0–0 16.0%

#3 2–0 12.8%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Bizertin1.3

Olympique Béja0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CA BIZERTIN · PPG 1.83

OLYMPIQUE BÉJA · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CA Bizertin (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -21.3%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.5%

Olympique Béja (A) 20.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Bizertin face Olympique Béja in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Bizertin a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Olympique Béja 21%, so CA Bizertin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for CA Bizertin and 0.6 for Olympique Béja (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Bizertin are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.75 for Olympique Béja. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +2.2%.

CA Bizertin vs Olympique Béja Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Tunisia - Ligue 1 Predictions