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ES Tunis vs ES Sahel Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:30

ES Tunis

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

ES Sahel

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-15.4%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.0%1-19.2%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.3%2-17.9%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.3%3-14.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-12.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.6% 75.2% 1.33 -14.1%

Draw 21.6% 25.0% 4.00 -8.2%

Away win 13.8% 11.1% 9.00 +14.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

Over 3.5 25.6% 30.5% 3.28 -9.6%

BTTS 43.6% 41.7% 2.40 +4.6%

Home O1.5 48.8% 64.1% 1.56 -23.9%

Away O1.5 16.4% 12.8% 7.80 +16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.6%

H 65% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.0%

#2 2–0 16.3%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ES Tunis1.7

ES Sahel0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ES TUNIS · PPG 2.08

ES SAHEL · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ES Tunis (H) 64.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -14.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.2%

ES Sahel (A) 13.8%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

ES Tunis face ES Sahel in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ES Tunis a 65% chance, the draw 22% and ES Sahel 14%, so ES Tunis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for ES Tunis and 0.5 for ES Sahel (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ES Tunis are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.13 for ES Sahel. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 3-2.

ES Tunis vs ES Sahel Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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