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ES Zarzis vs Olympique Béja Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:30

ES Zarzis

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Olympique Béja

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-17.2%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.3%1-110.5%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-17.6%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.1%3-13.7%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-11.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 57.1% 1.75 -0.1%

Draw 26.6% 32.3% 3.10 -10.5%

Away win 16.3% 20.8% 4.80 -13.1%

Over 2.5 41.9% 38.5% 2.60 +8.9%

Over 3.5 20.6% 20.6% 4.85 -0.1%

BTTS 43.6% 44.4% 2.25 -1.9%

Home O1.5 40.0% 45.5% 2.20 -12.0%

Away O1.5 16.4% 20.0% 5.00 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.6%

H 57% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 20.3%

#2 2–0 14.7%

#3 0–0 14.0%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 0–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ES Zarzis1.4

Olympique Béja0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ES ZARZIS · PPG 1.45

OLYMPIQUE BÉJA · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ES Zarzis (H) 57.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -0.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.5%

Olympique Béja (A) 16.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

ES Zarzis face Olympique Béja in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ES Zarzis a 57% chance, the draw 27% and Olympique Béja 16%, so ES Zarzis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for ES Zarzis and 0.5 for Olympique Béja (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ES Zarzis are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.90 for Olympique Béja. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 1-0.

ES Zarzis vs Olympique Béja Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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