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ES Metlaoui vs Club Africain Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:30

ES Metlaoui

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Club Africain

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.3%0-118.8%0-27.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-112.0%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.0%2-13.9%2-21.5%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.8%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 25.0% 4.00 +9.6%

Draw 35.7% 37.0% 2.70 -3.6%

Away win 35.2% 48.8% 2.05 -27.8%

Over 2.5 33.3% 32.3% 3.10 +3.2%

Over 3.5 13.7% 16.4% 6.10 -9.9%

BTTS 43.6% 41.7% 2.40 +4.6%

Home O1.5 30.6% 21.1% 4.75 +45.4%

Away O1.5 18.8% 35.7% 2.80 -28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.6%

D 36% / xG 0.6-0.8 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.3%

#2 0–1✓ 18.8%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 1–1 12.0%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ES Metlaoui0.6

Club Africain0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ES METLAOUI · PPG 1.61

CLUB AFRICAIN · PPG 1.87

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.13, combined xG 1.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ES Metlaoui (H) 29.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +9.6%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -3.6%

Club Africain (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

ES Metlaoui face Club Africain in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ES Metlaoui a 29% chance, the draw 36% and Club Africain 35%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for ES Metlaoui and 0.8 for Club Africain (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ES Metlaoui are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.87 for Club Africain. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +45.4%. This match finished 0-1.

ES Metlaoui vs Club Africain Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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