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ES Sahel vs ES Metlaoui Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:30

ES Sahel

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

ES Metlaoui

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-111.0%0-23.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.7%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-17.3%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.0%3-12.8%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 66.7% 1.50 -33.4%

Draw 31.9% 28.2% 3.55 +13.2%

Away win 23.7% 14.7% 6.80 +36.7%

Over 2.5 35.2% 42.6% 2.35 -17.3%

Over 3.5 18.0% 22.2% 4.50 -11.4%

BTTS 43.7% 42.0% 2.38 +4.0%

Home O1.5 31.2% 54.1% 1.85 -42.3%

Away O1.5 18.2% 16.7% 6.00 +5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.7%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 0–0 15.6%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ES Sahel1.2

ES Metlaoui0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ES SAHEL · PPG 1.70

ES METLAOUI · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ES Sahel (H) 44.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -33.4%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +13.2%

ES Metlaoui (A) 23.7%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +36.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

ES Sahel face ES Metlaoui in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ES Sahel a 44% chance, the draw 32% and ES Metlaoui 24%, so ES Sahel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for ES Sahel and 0.7 for ES Metlaoui (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ES Sahel are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.17 for ES Metlaoui. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +40.8%. This match finished 2-1.

ES Sahel vs ES Metlaoui Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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