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US Monastirienne vs Stade Tunisien Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:30

US Monastirienne

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Stade Tunisien

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.7%0-112.4%0-24.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.9%1-112.6%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.6%2-16.4%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.2%3-12.1%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 38.5% 2.60 +4.3%

Draw 35.6% 40.8% 2.45 -12.8%

Away win 24.4% 32.3% 3.10 -14.6%

Over 2.5 34.2% 30.8% 3.25 +11.2%

Over 3.5 16.4% 14.4% 6.95 +8.4%

BTTS 42.6% 40.0% 2.50 +6.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 29.2% 3.42 +5.7%

Away O1.5 18.2% 20.8% 4.80 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.6%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.7%

#2 1–0 18.9%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

US Monastirienne1.0

Stade Tunisien0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

US MONASTIRIENNE · PPG 1.87

STADE TUNISIEN · PPG 1.43

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 1.67 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

US Monastirienne (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +4.3%

Draw 35.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -12.8%

Stade Tunisien (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

US Monastirienne face Stade Tunisien in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives US Monastirienne a 40% chance, the draw 36% and Stade Tunisien 24%, so US Monastirienne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for US Monastirienne and 0.7 for Stade Tunisien (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, US Monastirienne are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.43 for Stade Tunisien. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 2-1.

US Monastirienne vs Stade Tunisien Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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