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Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:30

Olympique Béja

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

US Ben Guerdane

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-112.5%0-25.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.3%1-113.2%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.6%2-17.0%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.5%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 40.0% 2.50 -9.0%

Draw 34.7% 35.7% 2.80 -2.8%

Away win 28.9% 34.5% 2.90 -9.7%

Over 2.5 34.2% 36.4% 2.75 -5.9%

Over 3.5 18.0% 18.7% 5.35 -2.2%

BTTS 43.7% 46.5% 2.15 -6.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Away O1.5 23.5% 29.0% 3.45 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.7%

D 35% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.3%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympique Béja1.1

US Ben Guerdane0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIQUE BÉJA · PPG 1.43

US BEN GUERDANE · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 1.87 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olympique Béja (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.0%

Draw 34.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -2.8%

US Ben Guerdane (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympique Béja face US Ben Guerdane in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympique Béja a 36% chance, the draw 35% and US Ben Guerdane 29%, so Olympique Béja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Olympique Béja and 0.8 for US Ben Guerdane (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympique Béja are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.17 for US Ben Guerdane. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Olympique Béja vs US Ben Guerdane Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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