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CA Bizertin vs AS Marsa Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:30

CA Bizertin

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

AS Marsa

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-111.2%0-23.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.7%1-112.5%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-17.0%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.9%3-12.6%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 55.6% 1.80 -18.3%

Draw 31.8% 34.7% 2.88 -8.4%

Away win 22.8% 21.1% 4.75 +5.0%

Over 2.5 35.8% 38.2% 2.62 -6.2%

Over 3.5 18.2% 17.7% 5.65 +1.7%

BTTS 43.6% 43.5% 2.30 +0.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 41.7% 2.40 -26.6%

Away O1.5 17.9% 17.7% 5.65 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.6%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.7%

#2 0–0 16.8%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Bizertin1.1

AS Marsa0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CA BIZERTIN · PPG 1.59

AS MARSA · PPG 0.99

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 1.79 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CA Bizertin (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -18.3%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.4%

AS Marsa (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Bizertin face AS Marsa in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Bizertin a 45% chance, the draw 32% and AS Marsa 23%, so CA Bizertin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for CA Bizertin and 0.7 for AS Marsa (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Bizertin are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.99 for AS Marsa. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 1-0.

CA Bizertin vs AS Marsa Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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