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CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:30

CS Sfaxien

PPG 2.04 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

ES Zarzis

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-110.8%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.6%1-112.5%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.7%2-17.2%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.1%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 57.8% 1.73 -24.6%

Draw 33.0% 34.5% 2.90 -4.3%

Away win 23.3% 20.0% 5.00 +9.9%

Over 2.5 34.2% 40.0% 2.50 -14.5%

Over 3.5 18.0% 21.3% 4.70 -9.2%

BTTS 42.6% 40.0% 2.50 +6.5%

Home O1.5 31.2% 45.7% 2.19 -31.7%

Away O1.5 18.2% 16.7% 6.00 +5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.6%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 1–0 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CS Sfaxien1.2

ES Zarzis0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CS SFAXIEN · PPG 2.04

ES ZARZIS · PPG 1.43

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CS Sfaxien (H) 43.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -24.6%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -4.3%

ES Zarzis (A) 23.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CS Sfaxien face ES Zarzis in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CS Sfaxien a 44% chance, the draw 33% and ES Zarzis 23%, so CS Sfaxien are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for CS Sfaxien and 0.7 for ES Zarzis (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CS Sfaxien are averaging 2.04 points per game versus 1.43 for ES Zarzis. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 2-1.

CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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