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Stade Tunisien vs CS Sfaxien Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:30

Stade Tunisien

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

CS Sfaxien

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.2%0-114.3%0-24.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.6%1-112.1%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.3%2-15.1%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.3%3-11.4%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 34.5% 2.90 +15.7%

Draw 34.9% 41.7% 2.40 -16.2%

Away win 25.2% 34.7% 2.88 -16.4%

Over 2.5 34.5% 28.6% 3.50 +20.8%

Over 3.5 14.7% 13.7% 7.30 +4.4%

BTTS 43.6% 40.8% 2.45 +6.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 25.1% 3.98 +21.8%

Away O1.5 16.6% 24.4% 4.10 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.6%

H 40% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.2%

#2 1–0 19.6%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 1–1✓ 12.1%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stade Tunisien0.8

CS Sfaxien0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STADE TUNISIEN · PPG 1.78

CS SFAXIEN · PPG 1.70

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 1.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stade Tunisien (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +15.7%

Draw 34.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -16.2%

CS Sfaxien (A) 25.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stade Tunisien face CS Sfaxien in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stade Tunisien a 40% chance, the draw 35% and CS Sfaxien 25%, so Stade Tunisien are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Stade Tunisien and 0.6 for CS Sfaxien (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stade Tunisien are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.70 for CS Sfaxien. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +21.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Stade Tunisien vs CS Sfaxien Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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