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Qizilqum vs Nasaf Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 15:00

Qizilqum

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Nasaf

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-115.3%0-210.0%0-34.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.8%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.1%2-15.4%2-23.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.1%3-11.5%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.8% 27.0% 3.70 -0.5%

Draw 27.9% 34.5% 2.90 -11.5%

Away win 45.4% 51.3% 1.95 -11.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 46.5% 2.15 -3.7%

Over 3.5 25.6% 27.9% 3.58 -5.0%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%

Away O1.5 40.1% 46.7% 2.14 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.2%

A 45% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.3%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 0–2 10.0%

#5 1–0✓ 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qizilqum0.8

Nasaf1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

QIZILQUM · PPG 1.25

NASAF · PPG 1.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.48, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Qizilqum (H) 26.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.5%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.5%

Nasaf (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qizilqum face Nasaf in Uzbekistan - Super League on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qizilqum a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Nasaf 45%, so Nasaf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Qizilqum and 1.3 for Nasaf (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qizilqum are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.44 for Nasaf. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Qizilqum vs Nasaf Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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