Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC Viktoria Köln

Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC Viktoria Köln Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30

Rot-Weiß Essen

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LWD ··

UPCOMING

FC Viktoria Köln

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.1%0-23.8%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.5%1-19.6%1-27.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.8%3-15.7%3-24.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.1%4+-23.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 54.6% 1.83 -20.6%

Draw 22.3% 25.3% 3.95 -7.1%

Away win 34.3% 27.4% 3.65 +25.2%

Over 2.5 65.0% 66.7% 1.50 -2.5%

Over 3.5 44.9% 44.4% 2.25 +1.0%

BTTS 63.5% 69.0% 1.45 -7.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 62.5% 1.60 -10.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 42.0% 2.38 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 43% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rot-Weiß Essen1.9

FC Viktoria Köln1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ROT-WEISS ESSEN · PPG 2.08

FC VIKTORIA KÖLN · PPG 1.62

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rot-Weiß Essen (H) 43.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -20.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.1%

FC Viktoria Köln (A) 34.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +25.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rot-Weiß Essen face FC Viktoria Köln in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rot-Weiß Essen a 43% chance, the draw 22% and FC Viktoria Köln 34%, so Rot-Weiß Essen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.5 for FC Viktoria Köln (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rot-Weiß Essen are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.62 for FC Viktoria Köln. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.3%.

Rot-Weiß Essen vs FC Viktoria Köln Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - 3. Liga Predictions