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SV Wehen vs Rot-Weiß Essen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

SV Wehen

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rot-Weiß Essen

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWD ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.6%0-23.7%0-32.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.5%1-18.9%1-27.2%1-33.9%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.5%3-15.6%3-24.5%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.3%4+-23.4%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 34.7% 2.88 +24.7%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 34.3% 45.5% 2.20 -24.5%

Over 2.5 64.2% 66.7% 1.50 -3.7%

Over 3.5 43.2% 43.5% 2.30 -0.6%

BTTS 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Home O1.5 56.3% 47.6% 2.10 +18.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 56.5% 1.77 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 43% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SV Wehen1.9

Rot-Weiß Essen1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SV WEHEN · PPG 1.43

ROT-WEISS ESSEN · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SV Wehen (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +24.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Rot-Weiß Essen (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

SV Wehen face Rot-Weiß Essen in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SV Wehen a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Rot-Weiß Essen 34%, so SV Wehen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for SV Wehen and 1.6 for Rot-Weiß Essen (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SV Wehen are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.29 for Rot-Weiß Essen. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +37.0%. This match finished 0-0.

SV Wehen vs Rot-Weiß Essen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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