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SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

SSV Jahn Regensburg

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

UPCOMING

MSV Duisburg

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.0%0-25.3%0-33.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.5%1-19.7%1-28.6%1-35.0%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.5%2-17.9%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.4%3-14.2%3-23.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.5%4+-22.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 29.0% 3.45 +20.4%

Draw 21.4% 26.7% 3.75 -11.8%

Away win 43.7% 51.3% 1.95 -14.8%

Over 2.5 66.5% 63.7% 1.57 +4.4%

Over 3.5 44.9% 41.7% 2.40 +7.8%

BTTS 63.5% 67.6% 1.48 -6.0%

Home O1.5 48.1% 41.7% 2.40 +15.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

A 44% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SSV Jahn Regensburg1.6

MSV Duisburg1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SSV JAHN REGENSBURG · PPG 1.29

MSV DUISBURG · PPG 1.54

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SSV Jahn Regensburg (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +20.4%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.8%

MSV Duisburg (A) 43.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

SSV Jahn Regensburg face MSV Duisburg in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 35% chance, the draw 21% and MSV Duisburg 44%, so MSV Duisburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.8 for MSV Duisburg (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.54 for MSV Duisburg. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +23.4%.

SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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