Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen

Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Hansa Rostock

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

WDW ··

UPCOMING

SV Wehen

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLD ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.4%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.7%1-18.0%1-24.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-19.5%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.3%3-17.5%3-24.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-17.7%4+-24.6%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 58.8% 1.70 -0.7%

Draw 19.8% 25.0% 4.00 -12.5%

Away win 21.8% 23.8% 4.20 -5.1%

Over 2.5 68.4% 64.5% 1.55 +6.0%

Over 3.5 45.0% 42.6% 2.35 +5.8%

BTTS 61.9% 65.4% 1.53 -5.3%

Home O1.5 66.3% 63.7% 1.57 +4.1%

Away O1.5 35.3% 37.0% 2.70 -4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.9%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 1–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hansa Rostock2.4

SV Wehen1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HANSA ROSTOCK · PPG 1.51

SV WEHEN · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hansa Rostock (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -0.7%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.5%

SV Wehen (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hansa Rostock face SV Wehen in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hansa Rostock a 58% chance, the draw 20% and SV Wehen 22%, so Hansa Rostock are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Hansa Rostock and 1.2 for SV Wehen (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 0.95 for SV Wehen. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +17.9%.

Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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