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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Alemannia Aachen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

FC Ingolstadt 04

PPG 1.26 · HOME

LAST 5

DDW ··

UPCOMING

Alemannia Aachen

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.6%0-23.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.3%1-110.2%1-27.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.0%3-15.6%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 40.0% 2.50 +16.5%

Draw 23.9% 27.0% 3.70 -6.9%

Away win 29.5% 40.0% 2.50 -15.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 64.5% 1.55 -4.4%

Over 3.5 40.2% 42.0% 2.38 -4.3%

BTTS 61.5% 69.0% 1.45 -10.8%

Home O1.5 51.4% 51.3% 1.95 +0.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 51.3% 1.95 -17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Ingolstadt 041.8

Alemannia Aachen1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC INGOLSTADT 04 · PPG 1.26

ALEMANNIA AACHEN · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Ingolstadt 04 (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +16.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.9%

Alemannia Aachen (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Ingolstadt 04 face Alemannia Aachen in Germany - 3. Liga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Alemannia Aachen 30%, so FC Ingolstadt 04 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.4 for Alemannia Aachen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 1.60 for Alemannia Aachen. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.9%.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Alemannia Aachen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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