Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Alemannia A. vs Havelse

Alemannia A. vs Havelse Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Alemannia A.

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Havelse

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.4%0-21.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.4%1-16.4%1-24.6%1-32.2%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.9%2-18.5%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.5%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-19.4%4+-26.8%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 74.1% 1.35 -27.0%

Draw 23.2% 18.5% 5.40 +15.2%

Away win 22.7% 13.9% 7.20 +38.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 78.1% 1.28 -18.2%

Over 3.5 58.4% 57.1% 1.75 +2.2%

BTTS 62.9% 69.4% 1.44 -9.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.9%

H 54% / xG 2.7-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 3–1 7.5%

#3 1–1 6.4%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alemannia A.2.7

Havelse1.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALEMANNIA A. · PPG 1.44

HAVELSE · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=54.1%

Win probability 1X2

Alemannia A. (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -27.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +15.2%

Havelse (A) 22.7%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +38.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alemannia A. face Havelse in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alemannia A. a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Havelse 23%, so Alemannia A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Alemannia A. and 1.4 for Havelse (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alemannia A. are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.56 for Havelse. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +38.1%. This match finished 6-1.

Alemannia A. vs Havelse Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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