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Waldhof Mannheim vs Verl Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Waldhof Mannheim

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

WDL ··

UPCOMING

Verl

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.5%0-22.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.9%1-26.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.4%3-16.7%3-25.0%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-16.3%4+-24.8%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 42.6% 2.35 +22.2%

Draw 21.0% 26.0% 3.85 -11.5%

Away win 27.0% 38.5% 2.60 -17.9%

Over 2.5 68.4% 69.0% 1.45 -0.8%

Over 3.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

BTTS 63.5% 72.5% 1.38 -12.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 56.5% 1.77 +17.3%

Away O1.5 46.8% 54.1% 1.85 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waldhof Mannheim2.2

Verl1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WALDHOF MANNHEIM · PPG 1.91

VERL · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Waldhof Mannheim (H) 52.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +22.2%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.5%

Verl (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waldhof Mannheim face Verl in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waldhof Mannheim a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Verl 27%, so Waldhof Mannheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Waldhof Mannheim and 1.5 for Verl (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waldhof Mannheim are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.12 for Verl. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +34.5%.

Waldhof Mannheim vs Verl Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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