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Havelse vs Waldhof Mannheim Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:30

Havelse

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Waldhof Mannheim

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.6%0-23.8%0-32.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.4%1-18.9%1-27.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.2%2-18.6%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.3%3-15.5%3-24.5%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.1%4+-23.4%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 27.4% 3.65 +57.0%

Draw 22.5% 24.4% 4.10 -4.7%

Away win 34.5% 54.6% 1.83 -36.9%

Over 2.5 64.0% 69.4% 1.44 -7.8%

Over 3.5 43.2% 47.6% 2.10 -9.3%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 56.3% 44.4% 2.25 +26.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 64.5% 1.55 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

H 43% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Havelse1.9

Waldhof Mannheim1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HAVELSE · PPG 1.15

WALDHOF MANNHEIM · PPG 1.12

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Havelse (H) 43.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +57.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.7%

Waldhof Mannheim (A) 34.5%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -36.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Havelse face Waldhof Mannheim in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Havelse a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Waldhof Mannheim 35%, so Havelse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Havelse and 1.7 for Waldhof Mannheim (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Havelse are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.12 for Waldhof Mannheim. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +70.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Havelse vs Waldhof Mannheim Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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