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Preußen Münster vs Havelse Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Preußen Münster

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

WDL ··

UPCOMING

Havelse

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.1%0-22.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.3%1-18.7%1-26.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.8%3-16.7%3-24.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.9%4+-24.1%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 63.7% 1.57 -19.5%

Draw 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

Away win 27.6% 20.0% 5.00 +22.8%

Over 2.5 66.8% 65.4% 1.53 +2.2%

Over 3.5 44.9% 43.5% 2.30 +3.3%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 61.0% 66.7% 1.50 -8.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 33.9% 2.95 +24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preußen Münster2.1

Havelse1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PREUSSEN MÜNSTER · PPG 1.42

HAVELSE · PPG 0.72

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Preußen Münster (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -19.5%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.8%

Havelse (A) 27.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preußen Münster face Havelse in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preußen Münster a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Havelse 28%, so Preußen Münster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Preußen Münster and 1.4 for Havelse (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preußen Münster are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 0.72 for Havelse. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.7%.

Preußen Münster vs Havelse Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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