Today / Russia - First League / Rotor Volgograd vs FK Neftekhimik

Rotor Volgograd vs FK Neftekhimik Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 8 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 15:30

Rotor Volgograd

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

FK Neftekhimik

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-14.8%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-19.5%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.5%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.8%3-16.2%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-14.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 62.5% 1.60 +2.1%

Draw 21.1% 27.9% 3.58 -14.7%

Away win 15.2% 17.5% 5.70 -8.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 47.4% 2.11 +12.9%

Over 3.5 31.9% 26.9% 3.72 +18.7%

BTTS 51.4% 48.5% 2.06 +5.9%

Home O1.5 56.3% 53.5% 1.87 +5.3%

Away O1.5 18.2% 20.0% 5.00 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.4%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rotor Volgograd2.0

FK Neftekhimik0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ROTOR VOLGOGRAD · PPG 2.06

FK NEFTEKHIMIK · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rotor Volgograd (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +2.1%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.58 · IMPLIED 27.9% EV -14.7%

FK Neftekhimik (A) 15.2%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rotor Volgograd face FK Neftekhimik in Russia - First League on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rotor Volgograd a 64% chance, the draw 21% and FK Neftekhimik 15%, so Rotor Volgograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Rotor Volgograd and 0.7 for FK Neftekhimik (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rotor Volgograd are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.13 for FK Neftekhimik. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Rotor Volgograd vs FK Neftekhimik Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - First League Predictions