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Valadares G. W vs Damaiense W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 10:00

Valadares G. W

PPG 1.14 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Damaiense W

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.71)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.4%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.0%1-16.4%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.1%2-18.6%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.8%3-17.7%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.7%4+-19.8%4+-23.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.9% — — —

Draw 13.6% — — —

Away win 7.5% — — —

Over 2.5 65.8% — — —

Over 3.5 43.9% — — —

BTTS 47.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.5%

H 79% / xG 2.7-0.7 / O2.5 66% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 3–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 9.0%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valadares G. W2.7

Damaiense W0.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VALADARES G. W · PPG 1.14

DAMAIENSE W · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Valadares G. W (H) 78.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 13.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Damaiense W (A) 7.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Valadares G. W face Damaiense W in Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valadares G. W a 79% chance, the draw 14% and Damaiense W 8%, so Valadares G. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Valadares G. W and 0.7 for Damaiense W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valadares G. W are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.71 for Damaiense W. This match finished 1-3.

Valadares G. W vs Damaiense W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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