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Maritimo W vs Vitoria G. W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 10:00

Maritimo W

PPG 0.57 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vitoria G. W

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.57), Away POOR (0.71)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-110.3%0-28.3%0-34.5%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.3%1-111.7%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.1%2-16.7%2-25.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.9% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 48.4% — — —

Over 2.5 51.7% — — —

Over 3.5 29.6% — — —

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.3%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 0–1✓ 10.3%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maritimo W1.1

Vitoria G. W1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MARITIMO W · PPG 0.57

VITORIA G. W · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.57), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Maritimo W (H) 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vitoria G. W (A) 48.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Maritimo W face Vitoria G. W in Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maritimo W a 27% chance, the draw 25% and Vitoria G. W 48%, so Vitoria G. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Maritimo W and 1.6 for Vitoria G. W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maritimo W are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 0.71 for Vitoria G. W. This match finished 0-1.

Maritimo W vs Vitoria G. W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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