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Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Rīgas FS II

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

UPCOMING

JFK Ventspils

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.7%0-26.0%0-33.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-05.6%1-110.0%1-29.0%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.5%2-26.7%2-34.0%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.1%3-13.7%3-23.3%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 37.0% 2.70 -17.4%

Draw 21.5% 26.3% 3.80 -11.0%

Away win 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

Over 2.5 65.0% 66.7% 1.50 -2.5%

Over 3.5 44.9% 45.5% 2.20 -1.2%

BTTS 63.5% 68.5% 1.46 -7.3%

Home O1.5 39.9% 50.0% 2.00 -20.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 56.5% 1.77 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

A 48% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 1–1 10.0%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.0%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rīgas FS II1.5

JFK Ventspils1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RĪGAS FS II · PPG 0.56

JFK VENTSPILS · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rīgas FS II (H) 30.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -17.4%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.0%

JFK Ventspils (A) 47.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rīgas FS II face JFK Ventspils in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rīgas FS II a 31% chance, the draw 22% and JFK Ventspils 48%, so JFK Ventspils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rīgas FS II and 1.8 for JFK Ventspils (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rīgas FS II are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 1.12 for JFK Ventspils.

Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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