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JDFS Alberts vs Smiltene Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

JDFS Alberts

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Smiltene

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 82% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.4%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.2%1-14.5%1-22.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.5%2-17.4%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-18.1%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-017.4%4+-115.1%4+-26.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.4% 85.5% 1.17 -9.4%

Draw 14.8% 14.3% 7.00 +2.2%

Away win 7.7% 10.0% 10.00 -13.8%

Over 2.5 72.5% 76.9% 1.30 -5.8%

Over 3.5 50.8% 56.5% 1.77 -10.1%

BTTS 54.7% 62.9% 1.59 -13.0%

Home O1.5 77.9% 83.3% 1.20 -6.5%

Away O1.5 24.9% 25.6% 3.90 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 77% / xG 3.3-0.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.5%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 4–0 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JDFS Alberts3.3

Smiltene0.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JDFS ALBERTS · PPG 2.12

SMILTENE · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

82%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.41 for Home, form 2.12 vs 0.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

JDFS Alberts (H) 77.4%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -9.4%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +2.2%

Smiltene (A) 7.7%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

JDFS Alberts face Smiltene in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JDFS Alberts a 77% chance, the draw 15% and Smiltene 8%, so JDFS Alberts are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for JDFS Alberts and 0.9 for Smiltene (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JDFS Alberts are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.56 for Smiltene. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 3-2.

JDFS Alberts vs Smiltene Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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