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Tukums II vs JFK Ventspils Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Tukums II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

UPCOMING

JFK Ventspils

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.8%0-25.7%0-33.1%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.3%1-110.5%1-28.7%1-34.8%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.0%2-26.6%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.5%3-14.1%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 42.0% 2.38 -17.4%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 43.0% 43.5% 2.30 -1.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 45.5% 2.20 -13.3%

BTTS 62.4% 68.5% 1.46 -8.9%

Home O1.5 41.0% 53.2% 1.88 -22.9%

Away O1.5 48.5% 52.6% 1.90 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.4%

A 43% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–2 5.7%

#5 0–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums II1.5

JFK Ventspils1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS II · PPG 1.00

JFK VENTSPILS · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tukums II (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -17.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

JFK Ventspils (A) 43.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums II face JFK Ventspils in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums II a 35% chance, the draw 22% and JFK Ventspils 43%, so JFK Ventspils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tukums II and 1.7 for JFK Ventspils (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.12 for JFK Ventspils. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.0%.

Tukums II vs JFK Ventspils Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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