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Riga Mariners vs Rēzekne FA Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30

Riga Mariners

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

UPCOMING

Rēzekne FA

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 78% chance

xG gap +2.80 for Home, form 2.11 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-11.1%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.7%1-13.7%1-21.0%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.2%2-16.3%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.6%3-17.0%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-024.8%4+-113.8%4+-23.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.5% 93.5% 1.07 -17.1%

Draw 14.8% 8.3% 12.00 +46.6%

Away win 7.7% 5.3% 19.00 +27.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 82.0% 1.22 -16.6%

Over 3.5 49.4% 63.7% 1.57 -22.4%

BTTS 49.9% 44.6% 2.24 +11.8%

Home O1.5 77.9% — — —

Away O1.5 14.0% 19.0% 5.25 -15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.9%

H 78% / xG 3.4-0.6 / O2.5 68% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.6%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 4–0 10.6%

#4 1–1 3.7%

#5 5–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga Mariners3.4

Rēzekne FA0.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA MARINERS · PPG 2.11

RĒZEKNE FA · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.80 for Home, form 2.11 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Riga Mariners (H) 77.5%

ODDS 1.07 · IMPLIED 93.5% EV -17.1%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +46.6%

Rēzekne FA (A) 7.7%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga Mariners face Rēzekne FA in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga Mariners a 78% chance, the draw 15% and Rēzekne FA 8%, so Riga Mariners are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Riga Mariners and 0.6 for Rēzekne FA (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga Mariners are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.00 for Rēzekne FA. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +11.8%.

Riga Mariners vs Rēzekne FA Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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