Today / Latvia - 1. Liga / Valmiera / BSS vs Metta / LU

Valmiera / BSS vs Metta / LU Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Valmiera / BSS

PPG 2.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Metta / LU

PPG 2.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 73% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.6%0-25.2%0-33.3%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.9%1-19.1%1-28.6%1-35.4%1-4+3.9%2 2-04.0%2-17.5%2-27.0%2-34.4%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.2%3-14.1%3-23.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.4%4+-22.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 29.4% 3.40 +19.3%

Draw 21.0% 27.8% 3.60 -14.6%

Away win 43.9% 55.6% 1.80 -21.0%

Over 2.5 68.4% 75.2% 1.33 -9.0%

Over 3.5 46.6% 52.9% 1.89 -11.9%

BTTS 63.5% 74.6% 1.34 -14.9%

Home O1.5 48.1% 47.2% 2.12 +2.0%

Away O1.5 58.3% 66.7% 1.50 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.5%

A 44% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valmiera / BSS1.6

Metta / LU1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VALMIERA / BSS · PPG 2.71

METTA / LU · PPG 2.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

73%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Valmiera / BSS (H) 35.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +19.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.6%

Metta / LU (A) 43.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valmiera / BSS face Metta / LU in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valmiera / BSS a 35% chance, the draw 21% and Metta / LU 44%, so Metta / LU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Valmiera / BSS and 1.9 for Metta / LU (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valmiera / BSS are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 2.56 for Metta / LU. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.2%.

Valmiera / BSS vs Metta / LU Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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