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Grotta vs Völsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Grotta

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

UPCOMING

Völsungur

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.8%0-21.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.5%1-17.1%1-24.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.0%2-19.0%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.9%3-17.6%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-18.8%4+-25.7%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 41.7% 2.40 +29.8%

Draw 19.7% 26.3% 3.80 -15.1%

Away win 26.2% 43.5% 2.30 -23.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 75.2% 1.33 -9.0%

Over 3.5 45.0% 55.6% 1.80 -19.0%

BTTS 63.5% 75.2% 1.33 -15.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 57.8% 1.73 +14.7%

Away O1.5 39.6% 59.9% 1.67 -33.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 54% / xG 2.5-1.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 4.6%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grotta2.5

Völsungur1.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GROTTA · PPG 1.00

VÖLSUNGUR · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Grotta (H) 54.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +29.8%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -15.1%

Völsungur (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grotta face Völsungur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grotta a 54% chance, the draw 20% and Völsungur 26%, so Grotta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Grotta and 1.3 for Völsungur (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grotta are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Völsungur. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +58.5%.

Grotta vs Völsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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