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Järfälla vs FBK Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Järfälla

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

FBK Karlstad

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.6% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.9%0-27.6%0-35.6%0-4+5.2%1 1-03.9%1-18.6%1-29.6%1-37.1%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.5%2-15.4%2-26.0%2-34.4%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.0%3-12.3%3-22.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 34.0% 2.94 -20.0%

Draw 20.7% 27.5% 3.64 -14.8%

Away win 56.6% 49.5% 2.02 +14.3%

Over 2.5 66.6% 68.0% 1.47 -2.1%

Over 3.5 44.9% 44.4% 2.25 +1.0%

BTTS 62.8% 69.4% 1.44 -9.6%

Home O1.5 37.6% 46.3% 2.16 -18.8%

Away O1.5 65.9% 57.5% 1.74 +14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob62.8%

A 57% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 1–3 7.1%

#5 2–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Järfälla1.3

FBK Karlstad2.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.6% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JÄRFÄLLA · PPG 0.67

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 1.56

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.96 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Järfälla (H) 22.7%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -20.0%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.64 · IMPLIED 27.5% EV -14.8%

FBK Karlstad (A) 56.6%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Järfälla face FBK Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Järfälla a 23% chance, the draw 21% and FBK Karlstad 57%, so FBK Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Järfälla and 2.2 for FBK Karlstad (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Järfälla are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.56 for FBK Karlstad. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +21.9%.

Järfälla vs FBK Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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