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Sollentuna vs Gefle IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Sollentuna

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

UPCOMING

Gefle IF

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.8%0-26.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.4%1-112.8%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-18.3%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 41.2% 2.43 -6.4%

Draw 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 35.4% 39.2% 2.55 -9.7%

Over 2.5 53.6% 56.5% 1.77 -5.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 34.7% 2.88 -9.0%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 38.4% 46.5% 2.15 -17.4%

Away O1.5 36.8% 44.8% 2.23 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sollentuna1.3

Gefle IF1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SOLLENTUNA · PPG 1.00

GEFLE IF · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sollentuna (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.43 · IMPLIED 41.2% EV -6.4%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

Gefle IF (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sollentuna face Gefle IF in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sollentuna a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Gefle IF 35%, so Sollentuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sollentuna and 1.2 for Gefle IF (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sollentuna are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Gefle IF.

Sollentuna vs Gefle IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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