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IF Karlstad vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

IF Karlstad

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLD

UPCOMING

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.2%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.3%1-112.2%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.1%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.5%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 61.0% 1.64 -34.6%

Draw 24.2% 26.7% 3.75 -5.5%

Away win 35.9% 24.4% 4.10 +47.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 66.7% 1.50 -19.3%

Over 3.5 31.7% 44.4% 2.25 -28.7%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% — — —

Away O1.5 33.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 7.2%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 0–1 8.2%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Karlstad1.5

AFC Eskilstuna1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IF KARLSTAD · PPG 2.11

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 1.89

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IF Karlstad (H) 39.9%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -34.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.5%

AFC Eskilstuna (A) 35.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +47.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Karlstad face AFC Eskilstuna in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Karlstad a 40% chance, the draw 24% and AFC Eskilstuna 36%, so IF Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for IF Karlstad and 1.2 for AFC Eskilstuna (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Karlstad are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.89 for AFC Eskilstuna. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%.

IF Karlstad vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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