Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Buckley Town vs Guilsfield

Buckley Town vs Guilsfield Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Buckley Town

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Guilsfield

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.9%0-25.1%0-32.9%0-4+1.8%1 1-05.6%1-19.7%1-28.4%1-34.8%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.7%2-18.0%2-26.9%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.6%3-14.4%3-23.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.7%4+-22.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 30.3% 3.30 +17.8%

Draw 22.9% 27.8% 3.60 -10.5%

Away win 41.4% 54.6% 1.83 -24.2%

Over 2.5 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 48.5% 2.06 -19.0%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 45.7% 2.19 +7.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 64.1% 1.56 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

A 41% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buckley Town1.7

Guilsfield1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCKLEY TOWN · PPG 1.04

GUILSFIELD · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Buckley Town (H) 35.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +17.8%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.5%

Guilsfield (A) 41.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Buckley Town face Guilsfield in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buckley Town a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Guilsfield 41%, so Guilsfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Buckley Town and 1.7 for Guilsfield (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buckley Town are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.12 for Guilsfield. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Buckley Town vs Guilsfield Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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