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Atlético Tembetary vs Encarnación Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Atlético Tembetary

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Encarnación

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-16.5%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-111.2%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.6%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 57.1% 1.75 -7.8%

Draw 23.9% 28.6% 3.50 -9.8%

Away win 23.4% 25.6% 3.90 -5.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.6% 1.90 +2.2%

Over 3.5 33.7% 32.9% 3.04 +2.5%

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 54.3% 1.84 -8.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 31.1% 3.22 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Tembetary1.7

Encarnación0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO TEMBETARY · PPG 1.50

ENCARNACIÓN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Tembetary (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -7.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.8%

Encarnación (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Tembetary face Encarnación in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Tembetary a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Encarnación 23%, so Atlético Tembetary are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atlético Tembetary and 0.9 for Encarnación (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Tembetary are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Encarnación. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.5%.

Atlético Tembetary vs Encarnación Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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