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Næsby vs Hørsholm-Usserød Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Næsby

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWL

UPCOMING

Hørsholm-Usserød

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.4%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.1%1-17.9%1-25.2%1-32.2%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-19.3%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.6%3-17.3%3-24.8%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-17.5%4+-24.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 61.7% 1.62 -10.4%

Draw 21.2% 25.6% 3.90 -10.4%

Away win 23.5% 24.4% 4.10 -2.2%

Over 2.5 68.4% 66.7% 1.50 +2.6%

Over 3.5 45.0% 45.7% 2.19 -1.5%

BTTS 63.5% 66.7% 1.50 -4.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 69.0% 1.45 -3.9%

Away O1.5 40.2% 38.3% 2.61 +4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Næsby2.4

Hørsholm-Usserød1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NÆSBY · PPG 1.90

HØRSHOLM-USSERØD · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Næsby (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -10.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.4%

Hørsholm-Usserød (A) 23.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Næsby face Hørsholm-Usserød in Denmark - 3. Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Næsby a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Hørsholm-Usserød 24%, so Næsby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Næsby and 1.3 for Hørsholm-Usserød (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Næsby are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.10 for Hørsholm-Usserød. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.9%.

Næsby vs Hørsholm-Usserød Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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