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Holbæk B&I vs Næsby Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

Holbæk B&I

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Næsby

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.8%0-22.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.5%1-18.5%1-25.5%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.4%3-17.0%3-24.6%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-16.6%4+-24.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 54.1% 1.85 -1.2%

Draw 22.4% 27.8% 3.60 -11.6%

Away win 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Over 2.5 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Over 3.5 43.2% 46.9% 2.13 -8.0%

BTTS 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 63.3% 1.58 +4.0%

Away O1.5 38.2% 43.5% 2.30 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Holbæk B&I2.2

Næsby1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLBÆK B&I · PPG 2.13

NÆSBY · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Holbæk B&I (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.6%

Næsby (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Holbæk B&I face Næsby in Denmark - 3. Division on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Holbæk B&I a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Næsby 24%, so Holbæk B&I are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Holbæk B&I and 1.3 for Næsby (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Holbæk B&I are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.38 for Næsby. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Holbæk B&I vs Næsby Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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