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Brønshøj vs Sundby Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Brønshøj

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sundby

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.3%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.5%1-111.8%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.5%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-15.1%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 59.9% 1.67 -16.8%

Draw 27.2% 28.6% 3.50 -2.9%

Away win 23.0% 23.8% 4.20 -2.0%

Over 2.5 50.3% 60.6% 1.65 -17.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 40.7% 2.46 -17.5%

BTTS 49.6% 62.5% 1.60 -20.6%

Home O1.5 47.5% 62.1% 1.61 -23.5%

Away O1.5 27.7% 33.6% 2.98 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 80%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.6%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brønshøj1.6

Sundby0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BRØNSHØJ · PPG 1.50

SUNDBY · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brønshøj (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -16.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.9%

Sundby (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brønshøj face Sundby in Denmark - 3. Division on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brønshøj a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Sundby 23%, so Brønshøj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Brønshøj and 0.9 for Sundby (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brønshøj are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.64 for Sundby. This match finished 3-1.

Brønshøj vs Sundby Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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