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Hørsholm-Usserød vs Brønshøj Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Hørsholm-Usserød

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Brønshøj

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.0%0-23.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.6%1-19.8%1-26.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.9%3-16.3%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.8%4+-23.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 40.0% 2.50 +28.7%

Draw 22.3% 30.8% 3.25 -16.5%

Away win 26.2% 42.0% 2.38 -22.6%

Over 2.5 62.9% 65.4% 1.53 -3.8%

Over 3.5 39.3% 46.1% 2.17 -14.7%

BTTS 61.2% 71.4% 1.40 -14.3%

Home O1.5 56.3% 51.8% 1.93 +8.7%

Away O1.5 36.6% 54.6% 1.83 -33.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.2%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hørsholm-Usserød2.0

Brønshøj1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HØRSHOLM-USSERØD · PPG 1.32

BRØNSHØJ · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hørsholm-Usserød (H) 51.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +28.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.5%

Brønshøj (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hørsholm-Usserød face Brønshøj in Denmark - 3. Division on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hørsholm-Usserød a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Brønshøj 26%, so Hørsholm-Usserød are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Hørsholm-Usserød and 1.3 for Brønshøj (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hørsholm-Usserød are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.11 for Brønshøj. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Hørsholm-Usserød vs Brønshøj Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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