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Næsby vs Brønshøj Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Næsby

PPG 2.05 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brønshøj

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.5%0-23.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.5%1-110.4%1-26.3%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.9%3-16.1%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.3%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 44.4% 2.25 +14.1%

Draw 24.9% 27.8% 3.60 -6.2%

Away win 24.4% 39.2% 2.55 -22.7%

Over 2.5 53.7% 63.7% 1.57 -15.7%

Over 3.5 34.1% 42.0% 2.38 -18.8%

BTTS 54.5% 68.5% 1.46 -20.4%

Home O1.5 54.6% 51.5% 1.94 +5.9%

Away O1.5 36.6% 49.0% 2.04 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 80%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Næsby1.9

Brønshøj1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NÆSBY · PPG 2.05

BRØNSHØJ · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Næsby (H) 50.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +14.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.2%

Brønshøj (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Næsby face Brønshøj in Denmark - 3. Division on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Næsby a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Brønshøj 24%, so Næsby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Næsby and 1.2 for Brønshøj (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Næsby are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 1.14 for Brønshøj. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Næsby vs Brønshøj Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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