Today / Denmark - 3. Division / Sundby vs Hørsholm-Usserød

Sundby vs Hørsholm-Usserød Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Sundby

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hørsholm-Usserød

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.1%0-23.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.8%1-19.7%1-26.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.2%3-15.9%3-24.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.4%4+-23.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 40.8% 2.45 +13.7%

Draw 22.3% 30.8% 3.25 -16.5%

Away win 31.2% 41.7% 2.40 -25.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 63.7% 1.57 -0.9%

Over 3.5 39.4% 43.9% 2.28 -10.2%

BTTS 61.9% 69.4% 1.44 -10.9%

Home O1.5 54.9% 51.5% 1.94 +6.5%

Away O1.5 41.2% 51.3% 1.95 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.9%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sundby1.9

Hørsholm-Usserød1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNDBY · PPG 1.82

HØRSHOLM-USSERØD · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sundby (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +13.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.5%

Hørsholm-Usserød (A) 31.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sundby face Hørsholm-Usserød in Denmark - 3. Division on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sundby a 46% chance, the draw 22% and Hørsholm-Usserød 31%, so Sundby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sundby and 1.4 for Hørsholm-Usserød (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sundby are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.11 for Hørsholm-Usserød. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 4-4.

Sundby vs Hørsholm-Usserød Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - 3. Division Predictions