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Holbæk B&I vs Sundby Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Holbæk B&I

PPG 1.99 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sundby

PPG 0.61 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.5%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.6%1-16.8%1-23.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.8%2-19.1%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.8%3-18.1%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-110.4%4+-25.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.0% 73.5% 1.36 -11.6%

Draw 20.1% 21.1% 4.75 -2.7%

Away win 14.9% 17.4% 5.75 -8.6%

Over 2.5 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Over 3.5 42.6% 48.1% 2.08 -11.4%

BTTS 54.5% 62.1% 1.61 -12.3%

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 31.7% 28.6% 3.50 +10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 80%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 65% / xG 2.7-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.8%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 7.8%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Holbæk B&I2.7

Sundby1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLBÆK B&I · PPG 1.99

SUNDBY · PPG 0.61

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 1.99 vs 0.61 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Holbæk B&I (H) 65.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -11.6%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -2.7%

Sundby (A) 14.9%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Holbæk B&I face Sundby in Denmark - 3. Division on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Holbæk B&I a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Sundby 15%, so Holbæk B&I are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Holbæk B&I and 1.0 for Sundby (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Holbæk B&I are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 0.61 for Sundby. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.9%.

Holbæk B&I vs Sundby Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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