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A. Quilmes vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

A. Quilmes

PPG 0.50 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

SM Burzaco

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 79.7% vs bookmaker-implied 34.5% — a clear edge.

+131.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-110.1%0-213.2%0-311.5%0-4+14.1%1 1-02.5%1-16.4%1-28.4%1-37.3%1-4+9.0%2 2-00.8%2-12.1%2-22.7%2-32.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-00.2%3-10.4%3-20.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 6.8% 41.7% 2.40 -83.7%

Draw 13.5% 33.9% 2.95 -60.2%

Away win 79.7% 34.5% 2.90 +131.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 38.5% 2.60 +64.1%

Over 3.5 40.9% — — —

BTTS 43.7% 47.6% 2.10 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob43.7%

A 80% / xG 0.6-2.6 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.2%

#2 0–3 11.5%

#3 0–1 10.1%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 0–4 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Quilmes0.6

SM Burzaco2.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

A. QUILMES · PPG 0.50

SM BURZACO · PPG 2.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

A. Quilmes (H) 6.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -83.7%

Draw 13.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -60.2%

SM Burzaco (A) 79.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +131.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Quilmes face SM Burzaco in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Quilmes a 7% chance, the draw 14% and SM Burzaco 80%, so SM Burzaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for A. Quilmes and 2.6 for SM Burzaco (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Quilmes are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.33 for SM Burzaco. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +131.1%. This match finished 3-0.

A. Quilmes vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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