A. Quilmes vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Wednesday, April 15, 2026 —

A. Quilmes PPG 0.50

3-0 MISS

SM Burzaco PPG 2.33

Away· +131.1% 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Quilmes face SM Burzaco in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Quilmes a 7% chance, the draw 14% and SM Burzaco 80%, so SM Burzaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for A. Quilmes and 2.6 for SM Burzaco (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Quilmes are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.33 for SM Burzaco. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +131.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 6.8%

Odds: 2.40 EV: -83.7%

Draw 13.5%

Odds: 2.95 EV: -60.2%

Away 79.7%

Odds: 2.90 EV: +131.1%

Model lean: Away

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.1% Odds: 2.60 +64.1%

Over 3.5 40.9% Odds: — —

BTTS 43.7% Odds: 2.10 -8.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2 ✘

2nd 0-3 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-4 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

A. Quilmes

0.64

SM Burzaco

2.62

Model SuggestionAway +131.1% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 66%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 16.1%

Bet Hit 52% (23 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.50)