Today / France - Ligue 3 / Gobelins vs Aubagne

Gobelins vs Aubagne Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:45

Gobelins

PPG 1.84 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWD ·

UPCOMING

Aubagne

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-19.9%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.7%1-112.9%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-18.4%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

Draw 27.8% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

Away win 27.5% 30.8% 3.25 -6.4%

Over 2.5 44.3% 46.5% 2.15 -4.8%

Over 3.5 24.5% 26.7% 3.75 -4.9%

BTTS 48.9% 54.6% 1.83 -10.5%

Home O1.5 38.4% 44.4% 2.25 -13.6%

Away O1.5 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 11%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.9%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gobelins1.3

Aubagne0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GOBELINS · PPG 1.84

AUBAGNE · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.43, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gobelins (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -8.2%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.0%

Aubagne (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gobelins face Aubagne in France - Ligue 3 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gobelins a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Aubagne 28%, so Gobelins are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gobelins and 0.9 for Aubagne (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gobelins are averaging 1.84 points per game versus 1.15 for Aubagne. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +0.9%.

Gobelins vs Aubagne Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - Ligue 3 Predictions