Today / France - Ligue 3 / Le Puy Foot vs Orleans

Le Puy Foot vs Orleans Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:45

Le Puy Foot

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWL ·

UPCOMING

Orleans

PPG 1.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-111.4%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.4%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.7%2-17.8%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.0%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 46.5% 2.15 -14.2%

Draw 28.6% 32.3% 3.10 -6.8%

Away win 31.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.6%

Over 2.5 43.3% 57.8% 1.73 -25.1%

Over 3.5 23.2% 38.2% 2.62 -23.5%

BTTS 49.9% 63.7% 1.57 -21.7%

Home O1.5 32.5% 50.0% 2.00 -35.0%

Away O1.5 31.6% 42.0% 2.38 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 10%

BTTS 20%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

D 29% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Le Puy Foot1.2

Orleans1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LE PUY FOOT · PPG 1.68

ORLEANS · PPG 1.96

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Le Puy Foot (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -14.2%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.8%

Orleans (A) 31.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Le Puy Foot face Orleans in France - Ligue 3 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Le Puy Foot a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Orleans 32%, so Le Puy Foot are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Le Puy Foot and 1.0 for Orleans (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Le Puy Foot are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.96 for Orleans.

Le Puy Foot vs Orleans Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - Ligue 3 Predictions