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Fleury 91 vs Villefranche Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:45

Fleury 91

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLL ·

UPCOMING

Villefranche

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.5%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-112.4%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.1%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 54.6% 1.83 -15.3%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 27.5% 26.3% 3.80 +2.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 52.6% 1.90 -4.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 52.0% 58.8% 1.70 -11.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 52.4% 1.91 -23.8%

Away O1.5 26.1% 28.6% 3.50 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 10%

BTTS 20%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.0%

H 46% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fleury 911.5

Villefranche0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FLEURY 91 · PPG 1.33

VILLEFRANCHE · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fleury 91 (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -15.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Villefranche (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleury 91 face Villefranche in France - Ligue 3 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleury 91 a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Villefranche 28%, so Fleury 91 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fleury 91 and 0.9 for Villefranche (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleury 91 are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.70 for Villefranche.

Fleury 91 vs Villefranche Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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