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Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:45

Aubagne

PPG 0.84 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bourg-en-bresse 01

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.8%0-25.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.1%1-113.2%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.4%2-18.1%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.0%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 43.5% 2.30 -11.9%

Draw 26.9% 33.9% 2.95 -12.4%

Away win 34.8% 32.3% 3.10 +7.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 52.7% 56.5% 1.77 -6.7%

Home O1.5 33.2% 43.5% 2.30 -23.6%

Away O1.5 32.9% 34.7% 2.88 -5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 11%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aubagne1.2

Bourg-en-bresse 011.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AUBAGNE · PPG 0.84

BOURG-EN-BRESSE 01 · PPG 0.84

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.13, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aubagne (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -11.9%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -12.4%

Bourg-en-bresse 01 (A) 34.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aubagne face Bourg-en-bresse 01 in France - Ligue 3 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aubagne a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Bourg-en-bresse 01 35%, so Aubagne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aubagne and 1.1 for Bourg-en-bresse 01 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aubagne are averaging 0.84 points per game versus 0.84 for Bourg-en-bresse 01. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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