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Rouen vs Valenciennes Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:45

Rouen

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWW ·

UPCOMING

Valenciennes

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLD ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-16.7%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.2%1-111.1%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.2%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.1%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 52.4% 1.91 +3.9%

Draw 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -12.3%

Away win 21.5% 27.8% 3.60 -13.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.8% 1.93 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 48.2% 57.8% 1.73 -16.6%

Home O1.5 48.8% 51.3% 1.95 -4.8%

Away O1.5 18.8% 33.3% 3.00 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 11%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 2–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rouen1.7

Valenciennes0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ROUEN · PPG 1.79

VALENCIENNES · PPG 0.81

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rouen (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +3.9%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.3%

Valenciennes (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rouen face Valenciennes in France - Ligue 3 on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rouen a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Valenciennes 22%, so Rouen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rouen and 0.7 for Valenciennes (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rouen are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.81 for Valenciennes. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%.

Rouen vs Valenciennes Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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