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Bastia vs Amiens Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:45

Bastia

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLW ·

UPCOMING

Amiens

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-112.7%0-26.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.7%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.3%2-17.2%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.6%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 50.0% 2.00 -22.8%

Draw 30.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.0%

Away win 30.6% 28.6% 3.50 +7.1%

Over 2.5 42.7% 48.1% 2.08 -11.2%

Over 3.5 20.9% 28.6% 3.50 -16.1%

BTTS 48.0% 57.1% 1.75 -16.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% 47.6% 2.10 -35.3%

Away O1.5 28.5% 28.6% 3.50 -0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 10%

BTTS 20%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.0%

D 31% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bastia1.1

Amiens1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BASTIA · PPG 1.07

AMIENS · PPG 1.21

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.05 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bastia (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -22.8%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.0%

Amiens (A) 30.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bastia face Amiens in France - Ligue 3 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bastia a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Amiens 31%, so Bastia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bastia and 1.0 for Amiens (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bastia are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.21 for Amiens. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.0%.

Bastia vs Amiens Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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